How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos

Analysis How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos
Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the twin earthquakes of February 2023, and the spillover of the Gaza conflict have traumatized and impoverished the Syrian people. (AFP/File)
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Updated 06 August 2024
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How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos

How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos
  • Five years since its territorial defeat, there are fears Daesh could be about to stage a comeback in Iraq and Syria
  • Economic hardship, national fragmentation, and spillover from Gaza could create conditions for a new insurgency

LONDON: Just when Syrians thought they could finally put the horrors of the past decade behind them, the first half of 2024 bore witness to a series of savage attacks by an Islamist group that many hoped had been vanquished for good.

Daesh claimed responsibility for 153 terrorist attacks in Syria and Iraq in the first six months of this year, according to US Central Command — already surpassing the 121 attacks reported over the entirety of 2023.

At its peak in 2015, the terrorist group controlled roughly 110,000 sq. km of territory — a third of Syria and 40 percent of Iraq, including major cities like Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, according to the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh.

It also commanded an army exceeding some 40,000 militants and had at its disposal a formidable arsenal captured from local forces. However, after an international effort, Daesh met its territorial defeat in the village of Baghuz, eastern Syria, in March 2019.




Al-Hol camp in Syria's northeastern Al-Hasakah Governorate. (AFP/File)

Five years on, and on the 10th anniversary of the group’s 2014 blitzkrieg of Iraq and Syria, there are fears that Daesh could be about to stage a comeback, at a time when the world’s attention is distracted by crises elsewhere.

On July 22, Geir Otto Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, told the Security Council that the “resurgence” of terrorist activities posed a significant threat to Syrian civilians, especially amid a deepening, country-wide humanitarian crisis.

Highlighting that Syria “remains in a state of profound conflict, complexity and division,” he said the country is “riddled” with armed actors, listed terrorist groups, foreign armies and front lines.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News the group’s lack of territory meant its militants had to content themselves with low-level insurgent activity.

“(Daesh) has remained a threat in Syria and the number of people that ISIS has killed and the number of attacks in 2024 has risen compared to last year,” said Landis, using another acronym for the group.

Daesh “is also trying to reconstitute itself, although it remains without territory and must carry out hit-and-run attacks and assassinations,” he added.

Ian J. McCary, deputy special envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh, confirmed in March that the threat of Daesh continued to lurk in Syria and Iraq.

“We continue to see a real threat in Iraq and Syria, where ISIS at one point controlled a region with a population of approximately 10 million people,” he told the Washington Institute.

“We have seen the emergence of ISIS affiliates — the so-called ISIS Khorasan inside Afghanistan, which poses a clear external threat — and in Sub-Saharan Africa where several ISIS affiliates have emerged.”




Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. (AFP/File)

Established in early 2015 as the regional branch of Daesh in South-Central Asia, the Islamic State — Khorasan Province, also known by the acronym IS-K, initially focused on transferring fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Syria, according to the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies.

The group has a history of attacks that extended far beyond Afghanistan, including one that targeted the Crocus City Hall in Russia’s capital Moscow on March 22 this year, killing at least 133 people and injuring more than 100.

In January, IS-K also claimed responsibility for twin blasts in Iran that killed at least 100 people and injured 284 more during a memorial for the slain Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

In Syria, the group has staged attacks in central and northeastern Syria, targeting both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the country’s semi-autonomous region.

Throughout much of 2020 and 2021, Daesh sleeper cells in the northeast were building an intelligence network and raising money through theft, extortion and smuggling, according to a 2022 report by the International Crisis Group.

However, analysts are particularly concerned about northeast Syria’s prisons and detention camps, where militants and their families have been held since their capture in 2019.




Women and children evacuated from Baghouz, a Daesh holdout in 2019, arrive in Deir Ezzor. (AFP/File)

Some 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are currently held by the SDF across 27 detention facilities, CNN reported in June. With local forces overstretched, many inmates have either escaped or been released.

According to Landis, the SDF “has amnestied a lot of detainees and converted many death sentences to 15-year prison terms. This means that many detainees are being freed from prisons in northeastern Syria.”

Human Rights Watch reported last year that there remain some 42,000 foreign Daesh supporters and their family members, the majority of them children, from 60 countries detained in northeast Syria.

The New York-based monitor said the children in those camps are “held in conditions so dire they may amount to torture, and face escalating risks of becoming victims of violence or susceptible to recruitment by (Daesh).”

Local authorities warn these detention camps have become breeding grounds for radicalization, potentially contributing to a Daesh revival. Such a reemergence would be devastating for a country already brought to the very brink.

Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the twin earthquakes of February 2023, and the spillover of the Gaza conflict have traumatized and impoverished the Syrian people.

In early 2024, the UN said some 16.7 million people in Syria — nearly three-quarters of the population — required humanitarian assistance. This came at a time when international aid budgets were already stretched to their limit.




Some 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are currently held by the SDF across 27 detention facilities. (AFP/File)

According to a July report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria remains significantly underfunded, with just $871 million of its $4.07 billion budget secured as of July 25.

Ramesh Rajasingham, director of the OCHA Coordination Division, described the situation in Syria as the “worst humanitarian crisis since the start of the conflict,” made worse by ongoing clashes among various armed actors in northeast Syria.

“Another reason that (Daesh) has grown is because of the infighting in northeast Syria between the Arab tribes and the SDF and Kurdish militia,” said Landis.

“The chaos and internecine fighting in northeast Syria have been replicated by infighting inside Syrian government-controlled territory and northwest Syria, which is ruled by opposition militias under Turkish sponsorship and protection.

“The general poverty in Syria and declining humanitarian aid combined with ongoing sanctions is having a bad impact on stability.”

He added: “So long as Syria is divided and suffers from a shrinking economy, (Daesh) will find recruits in Syria. Police forces in all the various regions have been weakened by the lack of funds, bad government, and poverty.”

Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022, according to the World Bank’s Syria Economic Monitor for Spring 2024. The report projects that the real gross domestic product will contract by 1.5 percent this year, exceeding the 1.2 percent decline of 2023.




Bashar Assad’s Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022. (AFP/File)

According to UN figures, more than 90 percent of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line, and more than half lack access to nutritious food, resulting in more than 600,000 children suffering from chronic malnutrition.

Despite growing concerns of a Daesh resurgence in the region, Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, does not foresee the terrorist group regaining control over large areas in Syria and Iraq as it did a decade ago.

“Because of the deterioration in living conditions and the fact that the grievances of many Sunni Muslims in that region remain unanswered, there will always be an appeal for (Daesh),” he told Arab News.

“Yet, I don’t think they could ever control large swathes just because of the current situation on the ground and them being too weak to do so.”

One reason for this is that Daesh’s “modus operandi has actually changed,” he said. “They are now a borderline criminal group as opposed to being a terrorist group. The distinction between the two is whether there is a political message to their activities or not.”

He said Daesh leaders “know full well that if they decide to control large areas, there would be a serious response from multiple actors on the ground, including the Kurds backed by the US, the Syrian regime backed by Russia and Iran.”

In Iraq, the group may be deterred by “the Iraqi army, also backed by the US,” he added.




Daesh has targeted both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. (AFP/File)

Both Shaar and Landis believe a redeployment of foreign troops to eliminate Daesh insurgents is unlikely. “I don’t see this happening given the current circumstances,” said Shaar.

Landis concurred that “more foreign troops are unlikely to be sent to Syria” to combat a resurgence. “Turkiye is seeking a deal with Assad. The US is likely to want to withdraw from Syria in the future, not increase its military position there.”

And far from involving itself in fighting Daesh, “Israel is likely to continue, if not increase, its regular attacks on state military forces in order to decrease their capabilities” as part of its shadow war with Iran and its proxies.

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Iran Guards chief says Netanyahu ICC warrant ‘political death’ of Israel

Iran Guards chief says Netanyahu ICC warrant ‘political death’ of Israel
Updated 58 min 37 sec ago
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Iran Guards chief says Netanyahu ICC warrant ‘political death’ of Israel

Iran Guards chief says Netanyahu ICC warrant ‘political death’ of Israel
  • Revolutionary Guards chief General Hossein Salami calls the ICC warrant ‘a welcome move’
  • Salami adds it is a ‘great victory for the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements’

TEHRAN: The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Friday described the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a former defense minister as the “end and political death” of Israel, in a speech.
“This means the end and political death of the Zionist regime, a regime that today lives in absolute political isolation in the world and its officials can no longer travel to other countries,” Revolutionary Guards chief General Hossein Salami said in the speech aired on state TV.
In the first official reaction by Iran, Salami called the ICC warrant “a welcome move” and a “great victory for the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements,” both supported by the Islamic republic.
Israel and its allies criticized the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant on Thursday for Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s former defense minister Yoav Gallant.
The court also issued a warrant for the arrest of Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif.
The warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant were issued in response to accusations of crimes against humanity and war crimes during Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, sparked by the Palestinian militant group’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The move drew angry reactions from Netanyahu, who denounced it as antisemitic and from Israel’s closest allies, including the United States, but was welcomed by rights groups including Amnesty International.
The ICC’s move theoretically limits the movement of Netanyahu, as any of the court’s 124 national members would be obliged to arrest him on their territory.
The court’s chief prosecutor Karim Khan urged the body’s members to act on the warrants, and for non-members to work together in “upholding international law.”


Israel armys say ‘eliminated’ five Hamas militants in north Gaza raid

Israel armys say ‘eliminated’ five Hamas militants in north Gaza raid
Updated 22 November 2024
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Israel armys say ‘eliminated’ five Hamas militants in north Gaza raid

Israel armys say ‘eliminated’ five Hamas militants in north Gaza raid
  • Israeli military: Slain militants had ‘led the murders and kidnappings in the area of Mefalsim’

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said on Friday it had “eliminated” five Hamas militants, including two commanders, in an overnight raid in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahia.
In a statement, the military and the Shin Bet security agency said they had “eliminated five Hamas terrorists, including a Nukhba (commando) company commander and an additional company commander who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre” that sparked the Gaza war last year, adding that the slain militants had “led the murders and kidnappings in the area of Mefalsim,” a kibbutz in southern Israel.


Strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs after Israeli evacuation call

Strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs after Israeli evacuation call
Updated 22 November 2024
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Strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs after Israeli evacuation call

Strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs after Israeli evacuation call
  • Latest raids follow intense Israeli attacks on south Beirut as well as other areas in Lebanon’s south and east

BEIRUT: Strikes hit the southern suburbs of Beirut, a bastion of Hezbollah militants, shortly after an Israeli evacuation warning early on Friday, according to Lebanese official media and AFPTV footage.

The state-run National News Agency said “enemy warplanes” had carried two raids on south Beirut, and that “thick smoke was seen rising from the vicinity of the Lebanese University” in the Hadath neighborhood.

Live AFPTV footage showed plumes of smoke over the area after the Israeli military called for the evacuation of three locations, warning on social media of imminent attacks.

The military later said in a statement its “fighter jets completed a new round of strikes” on Beirut’s southern suburbs.

The latest raids follow intense Israeli attacks on south Beirut as well as other areas in Lebanon’s south and east, where Israel says it has been targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.

More than 11 months of cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the Gaza conflict escalated into all-out war in September, with Israel conducting an extensive bombing campaign, primarily targeting Hezbollah strongholds, and sending ground troops into southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese health ministry said at least 52 people were killed on Thursday in Israeli strikes, including some 40 dead in Lebanon’s east.

On Friday, the Israeli army also issued evacuation warnings for parts of the coastal city of Tyre and the nearby Burj Al-Shemali Palestinian refugee camp.

The pace of the strikes across Lebanon has increased since US envoy Amos Hochstein ended his visit to Beirut on Wednesday, seeking to broker an end to the Israel-Hezbollah war.

Lebanon’s health ministry said Thursday that at least 3,583 people had been killed in the violence since October 2023. Most of the deaths have been since September this year.


UN could meet with Israel PM despite warrant: UN

UN could meet with Israel PM despite warrant: UN
Updated 22 November 2024
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UN could meet with Israel PM despite warrant: UN

UN could meet with Israel PM despite warrant: UN
  • UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Netanyahu have not spoken since the war started
  • UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said UN policy on contacts with people facing arrest warrants dates back to a document issued in 2013

UNITED NATIONS: The arrest warrant issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the war in Gaza does not bar UN officials from meeting with him in the course of their work, the UN said Thursday.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Netanyahu have not spoken since the war started as a result of the Hamas attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, although there have been contacts with the Israeli leader by UN officials in the region.
Guterres has been declared persona non grata by Israel, which accuses him of being biased in favor of the Palestinians. So talks between him and Netanyahu are very unlikely.
After the warrants issued Thursday by the International Criminal Court against Netanyahu, former defense minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas’s military chief Mohammed Deif, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said UN policy on contacts with people facing arrest warrants dates back to a document issued in 2013.
“The rule is that there should not be any contacts between UN officials and individuals subject to arrest warrants,” Dujarric said.
But limited contacts are allowed “to address fundamental issues, operational issues, and our ability to carry out our mandates,” he added.
In late October, at a summit of the BRICS countries in Russia, Guterres met with President Vladimir Putin, who faces an arrest warrant from the ICP over the war in Ukraine.
That meeting, during which Guterres reiterated his condemnation of the Russian invasion, angered Ukraine.


Palestinians welcome ICC arrest warrants for Israeli PM and former defense minister

Palestinians welcome ICC arrest warrants for Israeli PM and former defense minister
Updated 22 November 2024
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Palestinians welcome ICC arrest warrants for Israeli PM and former defense minister

Palestinians welcome ICC arrest warrants for Israeli PM and former defense minister
  • Palestinian Authority calls on UN member states to ensure the warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, who are accused of war crimes, are acted upon
  • The EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrel, says decision is ‘binding’ on all members of the International Criminal Court

LONDON: Palestinians welcomed the decision by the International Criminal Court on Thursday to issue arrest warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former minister of defense, Yoav Gallant.

The Palestinian Authority said the court’s decision comes as Israeli forces continue to bomb Gaza in a conflict that has killed nearly 45,000 Palestinians since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas, and it hopes the ruling will help to restore faith in international law, the official Palestinian WAFA news agency reported.

Netanyahu and Gallant are the first leading officials from a nation allied with the West against whom the ICC has issued arrest warrants since the court was established in July 2002. It also issued an arrest warrant for Mohammed Deif, the head of the military wing of Hamas. Israeli authorities said in August he was killed by their forces in an attack the previous month, though Hamas have not confirmed this.

All three men are accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity over their actions during the war in Gaza or the Oct. 7 attacks.

The PA said the decision to issue warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant was important because Palestinians “are being subjected to genocide and war crimes, represented by starvation as a method of warfare,” as well as mass displacement and collective punishment.

The PA, which signed up to the ICC in 2015, called on all UN member states to ensure the warrants are acted upon and to “cut off contact and meetings with the international wanted men, Netanyahu and Gallant.” Israel is not a member of the ICC.

The EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrel, posted a message on social media platform X on Thursday in which he described the court’s decisions as “binding” on all those who have signed up to it.

“These decisions are binding on all states party to the Rome Statute (the treaty that established the ICC), which includes all EU member states,” he wrote.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who has spent 17 years in office during three spells in charge since 1996, denounced the decision by the ICC to issue the warrant as “antisemitic.”

He said it would “have serious consequences for the court and those who will cooperate with it in this matter.”